Tourism operators have a new tool to use to answer questions about the Deepwater Horizon oil spill’s potential impact on Anna Maria Island. A computer model map showing the probability of the oil’s path shows the Island has a 1-20 percent chance of being directly hit by oil or tar balls, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA cannot pinpoint what percentage applies to the Island, spokeswoman Rachel Wilhelm said, but the Island’s location on the map lies at the border of the “below 1 percent” zone and the “1-20 percent” zone. The shifting loop current, expected to keep oil away from the Island, and other weather factors during hurricane season could redirect the oil, she said.
Answering inquiries from prospective visitors about the oil’s chances of reaching the beaches is tricky, said Ken Gerry, of the White Sands Beach Resort in Holmes Beach. Telling visitors about a 2 percent chance of oil hitting the beach won’t cause most people to cancel their reservations, while mentioning a 20 percent chance is “playing Russian roulette,” he said. “But saying ‘I don’t know’ is worse than saying, ‘there’s a 20 percent chance.’ ” Zones were established using historic wind and ocean current data and are based on oil being released for 90 days (through late July) at a rate of 33,000 barrels a day. The model will be updated as conditions change. The model shows the Florida Keys and southeast Florida at the highest risk of all Florida beaches, with a 61 to 80 percent chance of oil making landfall.
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Tags: Anna Maria Island, Deepwater Horizon, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), oil spill
